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QB drafts from 1991 to present

 
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brianhook
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Joined: 12 Dec 2003
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Location: seattle, wa

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2005 5:16 pm    Post subject: QB drafts from 1991 to present Reply with quote

I've wondered what rounds the best QBs come from so I did some quick research on # of QBs drafted, by round, from 1992 to 2003, then I broke it down by stars, starters, and career backup/out of league. I had to do some averaging -- for example, Tony Banks was a starter, but is pretty much a career backup. Kordell Stewart was a starter for quite some time as well.
Code:

1st Round - 25 - 5 (McNair, Manning,Culpepper,McNabb,Pennington), 10 (Vick,Carr,Grossman,Leftwich,Boller,Bledsoe,Dilfer,Collins,Couch,Harrington)
2nd Round - 11 - 0, 4 (Brees, Plummer, Batch, K. Stewart)
3rd Round - 11 - 0, 2(Griese,McCown)
4th Round - 18 - 0,2(Brooks,R.Johnson)*
5th Round - 8  - 0, 2 (Brunell,Feeley)
6th Round - 13 - 3(Hasselbeck,Brady,Bulger), 2 (Blake,Henson)
7th Round - 18 - 0, 3(Rattay,Frerotte,Foley)
Undrafted - 45 - 4 (Hebert, Delhomme, Warner, Garcia), 16 (Wright,Volek,Salisbury,Kramer,Fiedler,Garrett,Holcomb,Krieg,D.Huard,Hutchinson,D.Johnson,Lucas,Tomczak,Matthews,Moon,Kitna)

I haven't done the rankings yet, but that's some fodder for discussion right there.

There are quite a few backups that still might amount to something, including 4th rounders Garrard and Davey; 3rd rounders Simms, McCown, and Ragone; and a lot of wash-out 2nd rounders (Banks, Kordell Stewart, Shaun King, Quincy Carter, and Charlie Batch); and of course, 1st rounders that are reasonably assessed as busts but who started enough to get pushed into the starter category (Couch,Harrington).

Breaking this down as odds of busting and odds of getting a star:
Code:

Round    Star  Bust
1        20%   40%
2        0%    64%
3        0%    81%
4        0%    89%
5        0%    75%
6        24%   62%
7        0%    83%
Undrafted 9%   56%

There are, of course, sample size issues here -- no one is going to argue that you're better off drafting QB in the 6th round than the 2nd round. The comparison should probably be between 1st round and "other rounds".


Last edited by brianhook on Thu May 05, 2005 9:13 am; edited 1 time in total
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brianhook
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Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 2521
Location: seattle, wa

PostPosted: Thu May 05, 2005 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay, adding undrafted FAs from that same time period. I don't have their rookie years, so I'm just listing any that were on rosters from 1992 to 2003. In that time period there were 45 QBs on rosters.

Notable stars were Bobby Hebert, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and Kurt Warner.

Starters/career backups on that list include Anthony Wright, Billy Volek, Chad Hutchinson, Dave Krieg, Damon Huard, Doug Johnson, Erik Kramer, Jason Garrett, Jay Fiedler, Jon Kitna, Kelly Holcomb, Mike Tomczak, Ray Lucas, Sean Salisbury, Shane Matthews, and Warren Moon.

So that gives us a star percentage of 9% and a bust percentage of 56%.
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